Many experts close to the situation, from both a political and humanitarian perspective, agree that there will not be a short road to peace. If violence spreads or intensifies, this will continue to carry the harshest impact for Ukrainian civilians, both those who remain in their country and those who seek asylum abroad. Displacement numbers will also continue to rise if this is the case, which could overwhelm neighbouring countries — most of which are smaller than Ukraine and not prepared for an influx of indefinite displacement. Additional support may be needed in this case.
Even after treaties are signed and troops withdraw, recovery efforts will likewise not be easy or short-term. Violence has already destroyed communications towers, schools, residential neighbourhoods, water points, hospitals, and roads. Returning refugees who have lost everything will need help to rebuild their lives, homes, and communities without facing cyclical poverty. Millions will need psychosocial support and protection, both now and when this crisis concludes. Women and children — who make up most of Ukraine’s refugees — face added vulnerabilities, along with people who are disabled, the elderly, and ethnic minorities (citizens or not).
Despite an outpouring of funding, UNOCHA reports it’s only 44% of what’s needed for the interventions necessary to keep the Ukraine crisis from further deepening. An initial three-month plan was revised to six months, covering support through August 31, 2022. A long-term plan complements this, covering humanitarian response in Ukraine and its surrounding countries through the end of the year. Together, both plans require a combined €4 billion to ensure that the UN and partners — including Concern — can support those Ukrainians who need it most. UNOCHA notes this is an increase of funding need of over 140% since initial estimates in late February.